International Conference on Eurasian Economies

9-11 September 2015 – Kazan, RUSSIA

Paper detail

Paper ID : 1365
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : International Trade and Globalization
Presenter: Asst. Prof. Dr. Junus Ganiev
Session : 4C Uluslararası Ticaret II

The Effect of Foreign Trade and Remittances to Gross Domestic Product of Kyrgyzstan: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach
Kırgızistan’da Dış Ticaret ve Yurtdışından Transferlerin Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasılaya Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

• Asst. Prof. Dr. Junus Ganiev (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, Kyrgyzstan)

Abstract

The foreign trade deficit of Kyrgyzstan is increasing year by year and the import is exceeding export about twice. A significant portion of the foreign trade deficit is covered by remittances. Furthermore, the ratio of remittance to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is reached almost 30%. In this context, it is important to examine the effects of import, export and remittances to GDP. Empirical analysis using quarterly data covering the period 2000-2014 with ARDL Bounds Testing Approach showed that exports and imports effect GDP positively, while transfers from abroad effect negatively. So Kyrgyz Republic can further develop foreign trade in integration process with Eurasian Economic Union, but it has to involve foreign direct investments to decrease negative effects of emigration.

JEL codes: F10, F24, F41

Ganiev, Junus (2015). "The Effect of Foreign Trade and Remittances to Gross Domestic Product of Kyrgyzstan: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2015, pp.455-460, Kazan, RUSSIA.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C06.01365

Full paper in PDF format.

Session 4C: Uluslararası Ticaret II